If history is any guide, great powers rarely concede their influence without a fight. But the fight itself is changing, and the rules that once governed international affairs are no longer intact.
On the economic front, Trump’s approach is more aggressive. His administration has already imposed new tariffs on Chinese goods. In February, he announced a sweeping 10% tariff on all imports from China, citing national security concerns. Over the past decade, Beijing has systematically reduced its dependence on the US dollar, built alternative financial systems and expanded its global trade networks through the Belt and Road Initiative. The Trump administration may believe it is pressuring China, but it risks setting off a tech and trade war that could destabilise the global economy in unpredictable ways — unless that’s what the US establishment plans to make use of.
Russia and China continue to solidify their partnership, while Trump scrambles to dismantle it. Moscow and Beijing have invested too much in their relationship to allow Washington to dictate its terms. The world in 2025 is not the world of 1972, and Trump is not Nixon. The forces at play are deeper, more complex and less susceptible to the kind of transactional diplomacy that defined past realignments.
Since its full-scale operation of Ukraine in 2022, Moscow has become increasingly dependent on Beijing, not just for economic survival but for technological and military support. With Western sanctions cutting off key supplies, China has become a critical provider of everything from advanced electronics to essential industrial components. In return, Russia supplies China with vast quantities of discounted oil and gas, deepening their economic integration. Even if Trump were to offer Moscow an attractive deal, Putin understands that aligning with Washington carries far greater risks than remaining committed to Beijing. American foreign policy is volatile, prone to sudden shifts and heavily influenced by electoral cycles. Trump’s promises today could evaporate in four years, whereas China offers Moscow a stable and long-term strategic partnership.
Trump, ever the dealmaker, believes he can drive a wedge between Moscow and Beijing. His strategy is as brash as it is transparent – offer Putin a way out of economic isolation, ease sanctions and perhaps even grant Russia some of its strategic objectives in Ukraine in exchange for distancing itself from China. This, in Trump’s mind, mirrors the Nixonian realignment of the Cold War, a reverse Kissinger strategy designed to flip the script and box in Beijing. But Trump and his advisers appear to misunderstand the nature of the modern Russia-China partnership. It is not held together merely by economic interdependence or mutual hostility toward Washington; it is driven by a shared worldview, one that sees the United States not as an indispensable power but as a declining force clinging to the remnants of a lost order.
Unlike past superpower tensions however, this confrontation is not confined to ideological differences but is driven by economic and technological competition as well. Washington, Moscow and Beijing are all engaged in a struggle for control over critical industries – artificial intelligence, semiconductors, space technology and energy markets. The battle is not just about military superiority but about which economic system will dominate the 21st century.
When Russian Security Council Secretary Sergei Shoigu arrived in Beijing on February 28, he was not there to engage in ceremonial pleasantries. He met with President Xi Jinping and Foreign Minister Wang Yi, to reinforce the deepening strategic alignment between their nations. Xi emphasised the need for stronger coordination, particularly in global and regional affairs, while Yi reiterated that the Russia-China relationship was “rock-solid and unshakable”. These statements were not just rhetorical flourishes; they were calculated to send a message to Washington and its allies. Shoigu, in turn, reaffirmed Russia’s appreciation for China’s economic and strategic support at a time when Western sanctions continue to tighten their grip. The meeting reaffirmed what many in western circles often denied: the Dragonbear synergy, a systemic partnership between Russia and China for the longer haul.
While Washington publicly downplays the Russia-China military relationship, the reality is that their defence cooperation has expanded significantly in recent years. Joint naval exercises in the Pacific, coordinated drills in the Arctic and increased intelligence sharing all point to a growing alignment in military strategy. Trump, for all his bravado, recognises this threat. His administration has ramped up military deployments in the Indo-Pacific, bolstered alliances with Japan and South Korea and increased naval patrols in the South China Sea. At the same time, US forces may expand operations in the Arctic, signaling to Moscow that American military planners are preparing for a broader global confrontation.
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