The rapid offensive, which sent Kiev’s forces into flight, has been a triumph for the Russian army. But how it concludes depends on peace negotiations
Moscow’s decisive offensive in the Kursk region is entering its final stage, seven months after Ukraine launched a surprise attack and seized part of its territory. The situation bears resemblance to the events around Kharkov – on the other side of the border – in 2022, when Russia forces made a hasty retreat.
However, this time, the roles are reversed. The Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) find themselves unable to contain the swift movements of Moscow’s troops, chaotically backpedalling while their commander-in-chief describes the situation as a “planned regrouping to advantageous positions.”
The so-called Sudzha foothold – named after the eponymous town and long considered Kiev’s key bargaining chip with Moscow – is on the verge of collapse.
Background
Following the end of Ukraine’s surge in September 2024, hostilities entered a prolonged positional phase. The AFU transitioned to defense, gradually losing its foothold in the Kursk region while occasionally attempting to expand it. For the Russian army, this remained a secondary concern; the AFU’s zone of control was already fragmented and did not pose an immediate threat. However, towards the end of 2024, Moscow’s primary focus remained on the Donbass front.
By January 2025, the fighting around Sudzha had intensified. Ukrainian forces attempted to reinforce their positions, but Russian troops adopted a well-honed strategy seen previously in Donbass: encircle the enemy on three sides, cut off supply routes, and force their collapse through attrition. The turning point arrived in mid-February when Russian forces liberated Sverdlikovo and crossed the Loknya River, gaining access to the AFU’s main supply route from Sumy to Kursk.
Following the capture of Sverdlikovo, the situation for the Ukrainian forces deteriorated visibly. The enemy’s reports indicated the significant superiority of the Russian army, and unlike their unbelievable claims about North Korean fighters, this assessment seemed credible
With Russian forces now operating on this Ukrainian soil, territorial borders have become irrelevant – military necessity dictates movement.
The Sudzha offensive
The active phase of the operation commenced on March 7. Russian troops struck Ukrainian supply lines and key crossings while launching multi-directional assaults. In a bold move, Moscow even conducted a raid toward the border in the south, cutting off a secondary supply road to Sudzha. While soldiers later withdrew from some forward positions, the incursion had already inflicted severe disruption on the enemy’s logistics.
Unlike the protracted battles in Donbass, which focus on attrition and gradual advances, the Sudzha operation prioritized speed, surprise, and the systematic destruction of Ukrainian supply networks. This approach culminated in the now-famous “pipeline operation” on March 8, in which an 800-man Russian regiment severely disrupted the AFU’s logistical chain. By the end of the day, Russian forces had gained control over key industrial areas north and east of Sudzha.
Ukrainian forces attempted to retreat toward Sudzha in hopes of stabilizing defensive lines and extending the battle into a drawn-out engagement. However, by March 10, their collapse was evident. Units began chaotically retreating, with some fleeing toward the border and abandoning their equipment. By March 12, Russian forces had taken control of the industrial zone, suburbs, and Sudzha’s administrative center. While this maps still depicts areas under AFU control, in reality, they have already turned into a “gray zone” – likely to fall within days or even hours.
What comes next?
The pressing question now is whether the Russian army will continue advancing beyond Sudzha into deeper Ukrainian territory. Since the conflict in Kursk began last August, the concept of borders has become increasingly irrelevant – military necessity dictates movements, not outdated territorial lines. Russian troops have already crossed the border multiple times during operations around Sudzha, and there is little to suggest they would hesitate to do so again if required.
The trajectory of Russian operations hinges on the outcome of ongoing diplomatic negotiations. If Presidents Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump reach a lasting peace agreement, it is likely that Russian forces will halt their advance at Sudzha, as Moscow has no territorial ambitions beyond the Kursk region. However, should hostilities escalate into a broader phase, the Russian military may shift its focus toward the outright defeat of the Ukrainian army and the dismantling of the current Kiev regime.
The coming weeks will be decisive. Either Ukraine capitulates under American pressure, or the conflict escalates into its next, and possibly final, phase.
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