“I support what they’re doing, but we’d never have got away with it ourselves,” the former Tory Cabinet minister told HuffPost UK.
The veteran MP was talking specifically about Labour’s plans to slash £6 billion from the welfare bill, details of which will be outlined next Tuesday by work and pensions secretary Liz Kendall.
However, he could also have been talking about Keir Starmer’s decision to raid the international development budget to boost defence spending, or even removing winter fuel payments from 10 million pensioners.
All three policies are massively controversial, but also notable for the fact that none of them were in Labour’s election manifesto.
Brits may have been voting for change when they handed Keir Starmer a landslide majority, but they had no idea this is what it would look like.
However, a senior Downing Street source was unrepentant – and insisted the prime minister would not be backing down, regardless of the criticism raining down on No.10.
“People elected us on a broad mandate of sorting things out,” the source told HuffPost UK. “Everything flows downwards from the economy. If we are going to make people better off and deliver first class public services, we need to rewire the economy.
“You can’t have a growing, efficient modern economy where one in eight young people are out of work, or NHS waiting lists are at 7 million.”
The key factor behind the cuts is the fact that the £10 billion of spare cash – fiscal headroom in the Treasury jargon – that chancellor Rachel Reeves thought she would have at last autumn’s Budget has now disappeared.
With the welfare bill on course to top £100 billion by the end of the decade, it is firmly in Reeves’ crosshairs as she prepares to deliver her spring statement to parliament on March 26.
But the No.10 source insisted: “Whether we had £10 or £10 billion headroom, we would still be doing this stuff because we’ve got to get the economy motoring. Ultimately it is all to a bigger purpose.”
It is understood the package will include changes to Universal Credit, which will see the amount paid to those deemed too ill to work reduced.
Personal Independence Payments (PIP), which are meant to help the disabled with the cost of things like wheelchairs, are also set to be frozen, meaning a real terms cut in income for some of the most vulnerable people in the country.
“No Labour MPs came into politics to do this”
It is this latter change which is causing particular fury among Labour MPs, including some cabinet members.
Dozens are thought to be prepared to vote against the changes when they come to the Commons, with ministerial resignations also a possibility in what would be the biggest challenge to the PM’s authority since the election.
One rebel said: “People are horrified by the idea that PIP may not increase with inflation. Labour MPs in their constituency surgeries see a lot of people on PIP, and that weighs heavily on people emotionally.
“At first I thought that talk of up to ’80 rebels was an over-estimate, but now I think you could be talking about something in that region. And that’s before the pressure really builds from our voters.”
Downing Street has been inviting groups of Labour MPs into No.10 to talk them through government’s plans, but one attendee described them as “chaotic” as angry backbenchers make clear their concerns.
“People aren’t just going there and being told what’s going to happen, they are challenging what they are being told,” said one. “The very fact that Downing Street are having these meetings at all shows how worried they are.
“The opposition to this goes way beyond the left of the party. People are morally offended by it. No Labour MPs came into politics to do this.”
An ally of the prime minister said: “It’s the hardest thing we’ve had to do this parliament, and we don’t go into it lightly, but we have to do it.
“There is no alternative but to fix the system. The principles behind it are all about supporting people who can work to get back into work while at the same time protecting those who really need support.
“We have thought long and hard about what the package will look like, but ultimately, between Rachel, Liz and Keir, we believe this is the best way to do it.”
But Luke Tryl of the More in Common think-tank said Starmer risks “splitting Labour’s coalition” by cutting disability benefits.
He said: “There is a school of thought that’s all about ‘we must be seen to be tough’ and there is some appeal in that to some voters.
“But actually when you focus on the idea of cutting disability benefits it is less popular. I would be pitching it more as helping those out of work into work rather than being particularly punitive. Looking after the vulnerable is a core British trait.”
Chris Hopkins, political research director at pollsters Savanta, told HuffPost UK: “Increasing proportions of the public say that government spending on welfare is too high.
“But equally there will be many would-be Labour voters that could feel the pinch from any welfare reforms, and it’ll be that casework that may motivate many backbench Labour MPs to oppose the plans.”
Campaigners are making their opposition to the welfare cuts clear.
An open letter to the chancellor from 16 disability charities warned of the “catastrophic impact” of what the government wants to do.
“We agree with the government’s ambition to support more disabled people into work,” the charities said. “However, making cuts to disability benefits will not achieve this goal or fix the system. In fact, there is little evidence to suggest cutting benefits increases employment outcomes.
“We know the benefits system is broken and needs reform. That there are disabled people out of work who want to work given the right support. And for some disabled people work isn’t appropriate. Changes to welfare must start here. Not with cuts.”
Louise Murphy, senior economist at the Resolution Foundation think-tank, urged ministers to “proceed cautiously rather than rush ahead to find savings which could backfire”.
She said: “Ministers need to focus on long-term change and provide a clear claimant-focused rationale for reform, such as why levels of support should change.
“The current approach feels far too much like a cost-saving exercise that risks hitting living standards and further undermining faith in the benefit system.”
Despite the fierce opposition to the government’s plans, the PM and chancellor are determined to force them through.
How much long-term damage is caused by the incoming fire they will undoubtedly sustain remains to be seen
#Keir #Starmer #Braces #Labour #Rebellion #Welfare #Budget #Cuts
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