The Kashmir terrorist attack has sharply increased the risk of military confrontation between the two nuclear-armed states
Tensions between India and Pakistan have sharply escalated following a deadly attack in India’s Jammu & Kashmir Union Territory that left 26 people dead. While no concrete evidence has been presented linking Islamabad to the attack, India – which has long accused Pakistan of aiding militant infiltrations in Kashmir – has signaled that it holds Pakistan indirectly responsible.
The attack occurred on the afternoon of April 22 in Baisaran Valley, a popular tourist destination around 6km from the town of Pahalgam. The Resistance Front, a militant group believed to be linked to the Pakistani-based Lashkar-e-Taiba, has reportedly claimed responsibility, prompting New Delhi to accuse Islamabad of supporting cross-border terrorism. Police in Kashmir say they have identified three suspects, two of whom are Pakistani nationals, in the attack. Some reports later suggested that the Resistance Front distanced itself from the attack.
The international community has expressed concern over the escalating tensions between the two nuclear-armed neighbors. Observers have warned that the standoff could lead to further instability in the region if diplomatic channels are not promptly re-engaged.
Diplomatic response
India-Pakistan relations have been strained for decades over Kashmir. The two nuclear armed neighbors have fought four wars and have had repeated border skirmishes. Relations between Islamabad and New Delhi have been nearly frozen since 2019, after the Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi-led government abrogated Article 370 of the constitution, which granted a certain level of autonomy to Jammu and Kashmir.
Following the Pahalgam attack, the two countries took sweeping measures to further downgrade diplomatic and trade ties.
New Delhi reduced the staff at the Pakistani High Commission, expelling Pakistani diplomats, and closing its land border. It also suspended visa services for Pakistani nationals and advised Indian citizens in Pakistan to promptly return home.
Also, for the first time in six decades, India suspended the Indus Waters Treaty, which allows the two countries to share the waters of the Indus River system. New Delhi said the measures would remain in effect “until Pakistan credibly and irrevocably abjures its support for cross-border terrorism.”
Islamabad has denied it had any involvement in the Kashmir attack. It issued a reciprocal response to India’s measures on Thursday, suspending key bilateral agreements and cross-border routes, closing its airspace to all Indian-owned or operated airlines. India has also closed its airspace to Pakistani airlines, one week after Islamabad did so.
Islamabad was especially outraged over India’s unilateral suspension of the water treaty, warning that if India follows through on its threat to block the rivers, it would take this as “an act of war.”
Military escalation
For the past week, the Indian Army said Pakistani troops have been firing along the Line of Control in Jammu and Kashmir, prompting retaliation. No casualties have been reported on the de-facto border so far, despite the tensions among civilians in the border areas.
Meanwhile, Pakistani officials have claimed that military action against their country is “imminent” and Islamabad is ready to face the mounting threats.
Pakistan is expecting an Indian military incursion following last week’s deadly attack, Pakistan’s defense minister told Reuters on Monday. Asif accused New Delhi of “preparing for all-out war” and vowed that Islamabad is prepared to respond in kind. He also claimed that the Kashmir attack was “a false-flag operation” orchestrated by the Indian authorities.
RT has the latest developments on the unfolding crisis:
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